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About the spina bifida frailty and survival model

This tool uses findings recorded at birth for a child with open spina bifida to predict two things at ages 5, 25, 35 and 40: how frail they are likely to be if they reach that age, and the chance of reaching it. The two answers are reported separately and never combined.

Frailty is measured with a deficit-accumulation frailty index (Mitnitski and Rockwood). Survival estimates include CSF shunt history. SHAP shows which birth findings drive the age-25 prediction.

Predicts: Frailty index with an 80% range, and survival probability with a confidence interval, at ages 5, 25, 35 and 40.
Inputs: Sex, sensory level at birth, lesion level, sacral sparing, head circumference, birth weight, radiological vertebral level, motor level, quadriceps activity and CSF shunt status. Any field can be left unrecorded.
Cohort: 117 births followed for four decades.
Validation: Repeated k-fold cross-validation; survival bands from 25 resampled forest refits.

Key terms

Research and educational tool. Not for clinical decision-making.