Practice Trajectory

Next year's Medicare HBOT payments for a clinician, and the chance of a surge or an exit.

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About the trajectory models

Three models forecast a clinician's HBOT billing from this year's profile: next year's Medicare HBOT payments with an 80% range, the chance of a surge (payments rising 50% or more) and the chance of stopping HBOT billing within two years.

Surges flag where new chamber capacity is being added. Exits matter for access: rural clinicians leave HBOT billing more often than urban clinicians.

Inputs: Sessions, patients and payments this year, setting, specialty, state, years billing HBOT and optional patient-mix details.
Models: LightGBM classifiers and quantile regression, trained on 2013 onward and tested on 2019 onward before refitting on all years.
Data: Medicare Physician and Other Practitioners files, HBOT codes 99183 and G0277, counted in treatment sessions.
Limits: Clinicians who leave Medicare billing may still treat other patients, so exits are an upper bound on loss of access.

Research demonstration only. Not financial or business advice.