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About the recanalization model

Coiled intracranial aneurysms can recanalize months or years after treatment. This tool predicts the risk of major recanalization (Raymond-Roy class 3) over time for an individual aneurysm, first from pre-operative features and then with the planned coiling (packing density, hydrogel coils, stent assistance).

SurvSHAP(t) shows which features drive the risk at each time point, and a trade-off view shows the packing density needed to reach a target risk for a given aneurysm volume, and when that target is out of reach.

Predicts: Major recanalization risk at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months and recanalization-free survival.
Inputs: Aneurysm volume (mm³), neck width, location, age, sex, rupture status, and optionally packing density, hydrogel coils and stent-assisted coiling.
Model: Discrete-time gradient-boosted survival model.
Validation: 3,530 coiled intracranial aneurysms (open-access data, Choi et al.). 5-fold cross-validation with out-of-fold predictions: C-index 0.829 pre-operative and 0.835 full model; time-dependent AUC 0.85, 0.83 and 0.79 at 12, 24 and 36 months.

Key terms

Endovascular coiling only; the model does not compare coiling with clipping or flow diversion. Prognostic, not causal. Research demonstration only. Not for clinical decision-making.