Loading prediction engine

Connecting to prediction server...

0s, cold boot

About MatLevel-CDS

How much does a U.S. county's drive time to advanced obstetric care affect its rate of complications after birth? Nationally, about 2.8% more per doubling of drive time (95% CI 1.2% to 4.4%), and roughly three times that in rural counties.

For a patient at the first prenatal visit, the tool recommends a level of maternal care from her risk factors, shows the drive time to the nearest facility at each level, and flags gaps against a 30-minute target. A siting mode simulates a new facility and counts the counties it would help.

What it shows: Level III travel time, social vulnerability, maternity care deserts and care-level discordance by county; recommended level of care; county risk profile for six outcomes.
Model: Two-layer GraphSAGE graph neural network (8-nearest-neighbor county graph, leave-state-out spatial cross-validation), used inside double machine learning for the causal estimate. AUROC 0.815.
Data: 2,054 counties in 37 states; AHRQ HCUP 2017 to 2019; CDC Social Vulnerability Index.
Scope: Predictions are county-level, not patient-level.

Key terms

Research demonstration only. Not for clinical decision-making.